A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
