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Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for the team's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.